Bear Canyon is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Bear Canyon typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bear Canyon, ~38% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bear Canyon compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Bear Canyon is the most Republican-leaning.
Politically, Bear Canyon sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Bear Canyon. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Bear Canyon leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Bear Canyon. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Bear Canyon, Tucson, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Bear Canyon looks the way it does
Turnout in Bear Canyon sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Fairmont, Pacifica, CA D+38
- Lake Houston, Houston, TX R+15
- West 10th, Oklahoma City, OK D+20
- Platte Brook North, Kansas City, MO D+9
- Fort Caroline Shores, Jacksonville, FL R+29
- Caballo Hills, Oakland, CA D+66
- Mallory Creek at Abacoa, Jupiter, FL R+11
- El Trece, Laredo, TX D+13
- Downtown Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN D+40
- South Coast, Santa Ana, CA D+24
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.