Fort Caroline Shores leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Fort Caroline Shores typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fort Caroline Shores, ~28% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fort Caroline Shores compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Fort Caroline Shores is the most Republican-leaning.
Fort Caroline Shores runs about 16 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Fort Caroline Shores. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+36) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Fort Caroline Shores leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fort Caroline Shores, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 88% of households in Fort Caroline Shores are family households, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Fort Caroline Shores, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Fort Caroline Shores looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Fort Caroline Shores is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in Fort Caroline Shores own their home, compared to around 70% in nearby neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Cobblestone, Jacksonville, FL R+5
- East Arlington, Jacksonville, FL R+14
- Hidden Hills, Jacksonville, FL R+8
- Girvin, Jacksonville, FL R+27
- Beacon Hills and Harbour, Jacksonville, FL R+27
- North Beach, Atlantic Beach, FL R+19
- Atlantic Boulevard Estates, Jacksonville, FL D+4
- Golden Glades-The Woods, Jacksonville, FL R+17
- Sandalwood, Jacksonville, FL R+6
- Atlantic Beaches, Atlantic Beach, FL R+15
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Lake Houston, Houston, TX R+15
- West 10th, Oklahoma City, OK D+20
- Mallory Creek at Abacoa, Jupiter, FL R+11
- Carson Corner, Tucson, AZ D+5
- Bear Canyon, Tucson, AZ R+4
- Fairmont, Pacifica, CA D+38
- Prince Tucson, Tucson, AZ D+36
- Platte Brook North, Kansas City, MO D+9
- Caballo Hills, Oakland, CA D+66
- Minshall Park, Tulsa, OK D+5
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.