South Phoenix leans Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About 51% of adults in South Phoenix typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Phoenix, ~33% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How South Phoenix compares
South Phoenix sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable neighborhoods nearby.
South Phoenix runs about 35 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while South Phoenix is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within South Phoenix. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+35) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+6), a spread of about 28 points.
Why South Phoenix leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Phoenix, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
South Phoenix votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while South Phoenix runs about 35 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; South Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in South Phoenix looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. South Phoenix is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in South Phoenix have more than one occupant per room, above 88% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Ocean View, San Francisco, CA D+45
- Hermosa, Chicago, IL D+44
- Liliha-Kapalama, Honolulu, HI D+23
- Lower Peters Canyon, Irvine, CA D+13
- Bear Creek, Stockton, CA D+15
- University, Riverside, CA D+29
- Outer Richmond, San Francisco, CA D+57
- Greenbrier West, Chesapeake, VA D+25
- Northwest Omaha, Omaha, NE D+10
- Tierrasanta, San Diego, CA D+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.