Bolivar, MS Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Bolivar

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Bolivar leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.

 

About 57% of adults in Bolivar typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bolivar, ~31% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Bolivar compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Bolivar leans more Democratic than 37 of 60 neighbors.

Bolivar runs about 33 points more Democratic than Mississippi as a whole. Mississippi leans Republican overall, while Bolivar is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bolivar. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+28) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+34), a spread of about 63 points.

Why Bolivar leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bolivar, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural, majority-Black areas of the Southern Black Belt vote Democratic, against the usual rural pattern. About 56% of residents in Bolivar are Black or African American, about 20 points above the Mississippi average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Bolivar have never been married, above 93% of cities. Bolivar runs against the grain of Mississippi, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Bolivar, MS sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Bolivar looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bolivar is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 5%, about 55 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 32% of households in Bolivar rent, above 87% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 39% of adults in Bolivar report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.