Buttonwillow leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 26% of adults in Buttonwillow typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Buttonwillow, ~10% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~74% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Buttonwillow compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Buttonwillow leans more Republican than 7 of 16 neighbors.
Buttonwillow runs about 43 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Buttonwillow is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Buttonwillow. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+23), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Buttonwillow leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Buttonwillow, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 5% of adults in Buttonwillow hold a bachelor's degree, about 30 points below the California average of 35%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in Buttonwillow are family households, above 95% of cities. Buttonwillow runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Buttonwillow, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Buttonwillow looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Buttonwillow is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 16 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 58% of households in Buttonwillow rent, compared to around 40% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 35% of adults in Buttonwillow report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tupman, CA R+73
- North Shafter, CA R+54
- Mexican Colony, CA R+52
- Spicer City, CA R+9
- Mc Kittrick, CA R+82
- Shafter, CA R+11
- Fellows, CA R+80
- Wasco, CA Even
- Valley Acres, CA R+80
- Ford City, CA R+57
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sweet Lake, LA R+88
- Forsyth, MT R+53
- Old River-Winfree, TX R+73
- Bonnyman, KY R+62
- Intercession City, FL Even
- Mooers, NY R+34
- Selma, OR R+34
- Four Corners, MN R+12
- Rosebush, MI R+37
- Wilmar, AR R+34
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.