Guadalupe County leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Guadalupe County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Guadalupe County, ~25% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Guadalupe County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Guadalupe County leans more Republican than 3 of 9 neighbors.
Guadalupe County runs about 9 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Guadalupe County. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 27 points.
Why Guadalupe County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Guadalupe County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Guadalupe County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 57%, well above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 74% of households in Guadalupe County are family households, above 93% of counties.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Guadalupe County, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Guadalupe County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Guadalupe County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Comal County, TX R+36
- Wilson County, TX R+50
- Bexar County, TX D+14
- Hays County, TX D+4
- Caldwell County, TX R+17
- Gonzales County, TX R+41
- Kendall County, TX R+49
- Blanco County, TX R+53
- Atascosa County, TX R+37
- Karnes County, TX R+35
Counties with Similar Populations
- Carroll County, MD R+24
- Porter County, IN R+11
- Winnebago County, WI R+3
- Alamance County, NC R+4
- Kootenai County, ID R+46
- Lee County, AL R+13
- McLean County, IL D+5
- Scott County, IA D+5
- Hendricks County, IN R+20
- Kent County, RI D+5
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.