California leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 56% of adults in California typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in California, ~34% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How California compares
Among states within 500 miles, California is the most Democratic-leaning.
Politics vary noticeably by county within California. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+44) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+11), a spread of about 55 points.
Why California leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per state to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for California, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 86% of residents in California live in densely developed areas, about 50 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in California have never been married, above 96% of states.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; California sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in California looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 43% of households in California rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in California report food insecurity, above 82% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- Nevada D+5
- Arizona Even
- Utah R+19
- Oregon D+14
- Idaho R+34
- New Mexico D+4
- Washington D+16
- Colorado D+12
- Wyoming R+41
- Montana R+20
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.