Texas is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Texas typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Texas, ~27% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Texas compares
Among states within 500 miles, Texas is the least Republican-leaning.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Texas. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+39), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Texas leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Texas. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Texas sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Texas looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Texas is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- Oklahoma R+26
- Louisiana R+13
- Arkansas R+25
- Kansas R+14
- Mississippi R+13
- New Mexico D+4
- Missouri R+14
- Alabama R+23
- Nebraska R+15
- Colorado D+12
States with Similar Populations
- Florida R+7
- New York D+16
- California D+20
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.