Nevada is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Nevada typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Nevada, ~30% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Nevada compares
Among states within 500 miles, Nevada leans more Democratic than 3 of 5 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Nevada. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+16) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+52), a spread of about 68 points.
Why Nevada leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Nevada. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Nevada sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Nevada looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Nevada is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 39% of households in Nevada rent, above 94% of states. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Nevada report food insecurity, above 85% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- California D+20
- Utah R+19
- Idaho R+34
- Arizona Even
- Oregon D+14
- Wyoming R+41
- Colorado D+12
- New Mexico D+4
- Washington D+16
- Montana R+20
States with Similar Populations
- Iowa R+12
- Arkansas R+25
- Mississippi R+13
- Kansas R+14
- Utah R+19
- Oklahoma R+26
- New Mexico D+4
- Oregon D+14
- Nebraska R+15
- Idaho R+34
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Nevada Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.