New Mexico is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 65% of adults in New Mexico typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Mexico, ~34% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Mexico compares
Among states within 500 miles, New Mexico leans more Democratic than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within New Mexico. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+40) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+43), a spread of about 84 points.
Why New Mexico leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in New Mexico. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; New Mexico sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in New Mexico looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. New Mexico is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
States with Similar Populations
- Nebraska R+15
- Idaho R+34
- West Virginia R+41
- Hawaii D+18
- New Hampshire D+6
- Maine Even
- Kansas R+14
- Mississippi R+13
- Arkansas R+25
- Nevada D+5
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.