Carmichael leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Carmichael typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carmichael, ~38% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carmichael compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carmichael leans more Democratic than 43 of 57 neighbors.
Carmichael runs about 9 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carmichael. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Carmichael leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carmichael, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 98% of residents in Carmichael live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Carmichael sits in the top quarter (about 37%, above 85% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 32% of adults in Carmichael have never been married, above 80% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Carmichael, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Carmichael looks the way it does
Turnout in Carmichael sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- North Highlands, CA D+7
- Arden-Arcade, CA D+25
- Fair Oaks, CA D+6
- Foothill Farms, CA D+2
- Rancho Cordova, CA D+10
- Gold River, CA D+16
- Citrus Heights, CA R+3
- La Riviera, CA D+30
- McClellan Park, CA D+6
- Rosemont, CA D+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- North Highlands, CA D+7
- Montgomery, TX R+54
- Apache Junction, AZ R+28
- Webster, NY D+4
- Texarkana, TX R+17
- Plainfield, NJ D+57
- Winter Park, FL D+4
- Aspen Hill, MD D+48
- West Sacramento, CA D+22
- Covington, LA R+39
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.