Carroll County leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Carroll County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carroll County, ~16% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carroll County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Carroll County leans more Republican than 2 of 11 neighbors.
Carroll County runs about 18 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Carroll County. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+69) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+38), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Carroll County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Carroll County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Carroll County, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Carroll County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Carroll County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 5% of homes in Carroll County have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of counties. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Carroll County have completed high school, below 87% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Madison County, AR R+61
- Stone County, MO R+55
- Boone County, AR R+58
- Taney County, MO R+50
- Barry County, MO R+62
- Newton County, AR R+63
- Benton County, AR R+26
- Washington County, AR R+3
- Lawrence County, MO R+60
- Christian County, MO R+51
Counties with Similar Populations
- Baker County, FL R+61
- Dunklin County, MO R+50
- Montgomery County, IL R+44
- Wythe County, VA R+57
- Dillon County, SC R+5
- Bradford County, FL R+50
- Codington County, SD R+42
- Grant County, NM D+6
- Washington County, IN R+57
- Leflore County, MS D+53
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.