Lawrence County is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Lawrence County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lawrence County, ~15% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lawrence County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lawrence County leans more Republican than 7 of 12 neighbors.
Lawrence County runs about 41 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Lawrence County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+73) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+52), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Lawrence County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lawrence County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 17% of adults in Lawrence County hold a bachelor's degree, about 5 points below the Missouri average of 22%.
Frequent mental distress and voter turnout
Places with a low frequent-mental-distress rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lawrence County, MO sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Reported mental distress does not drive turnout; it reflects economic and health conditions tied to voting.
Why turnout in Lawrence County looks the way it does
Turnout in Lawrence County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Barry County, MO R+62
- Dade County, MO R+67
- Greene County, MO R+18
- Stone County, MO R+55
- Christian County, MO R+51
- Newton County, MO R+54
- Jasper County, MO R+40
- Barton County, MO R+65
- Taney County, MO R+50
- McDonald County, MO R+65
Counties with Similar Populations
- Scott County, MO R+43
- Independence County, AR R+57
- Pontotoc County, OK R+44
- Montgomery County, IN R+44
- Brown County, TX R+58
- Cass County, IN R+38
- Oneida County, WI R+18
- Jasper County, IA R+28
- Franklin County, IL R+52
- Marion County, IL R+47
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.