Newton County is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Newton County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Newton County, ~12% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Newton County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Newton County leans more Republican than 8 of 9 neighbors.
Newton County runs about 32 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Newton County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+72) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+52), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Newton County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Newton County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Newton County live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 13%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Newton County fits that profile on both counts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 73% of households in Newton County are family households, above 89% of counties.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Newton County, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Newton County looks the way it does
Turnout in Newton County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Boone County, AR R+58
- Searcy County, AR R+68
- Madison County, AR R+61
- Marion County, AR R+56
- Carroll County, AR R+48
- Johnson County, AR R+54
- Taney County, MO R+50
- Pope County, AR R+47
- Baxter County, AR R+51
- Van Buren County, AR R+63
Counties with Similar Populations
- Grant County, OR R+53
- Jefferson County, NE R+51
- Van Buren County, IA R+55
- Jefferson County, MS D+63
- Crook County, WY R+78
- Ferry County, WA R+31
- Grand Isle County, VT Even
- Pierce County, NE R+72
- Pepin County, WI R+30
- Lexington City, VA D+10
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.