Carroll County is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Carroll County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carroll County, ~15% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carroll County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Carroll County leans more Republican than 11 of 12 neighbors.
Carroll County runs about 43 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Carroll County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+71) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+54), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Carroll County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Carroll County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Housing overcrowding and voter turnout
Places with low overcrowding tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carroll County, MO sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Carroll County looks the way it does
Turnout in Carroll County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Saline County, MO R+36
- Livingston County, MO R+52
- Ray County, MO R+53
- Lafayette County, MO R+51
- Chariton County, MO R+61
- Caldwell County, MO R+59
- Linn County, MO R+55
- Daviess County, MO R+63
- Howard County, MO R+48
- Johnson County, MO R+35
Counties with Similar Populations
- Montgomery County, AR R+67
- Kiowa County, OK R+61
- Perry County, AL D+41
- Trimble County, KY R+57
- Jack County, TX R+74
- Clearwater County, MN R+46
- Sitka City and Borough, AK D+13
- Mathews County, VA R+39
- Johnson County, WY R+60
- Ritchie County, WV R+68
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.