Caldwell County is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Caldwell County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caldwell County, ~16% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caldwell County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Caldwell County leans more Republican than 10 of 14 neighbors.
Caldwell County runs about 41 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Caldwell County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+68) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+53), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Caldwell County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caldwell County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Caldwell County sits in the bottom quarter on density and about 92% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 5 points above the Missouri average of 87%.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a low never-married share and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Caldwell County, MO does.
Why turnout in Caldwell County looks the way it does
Turnout in Caldwell County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Daviess County, MO R+63
- Clinton County, MO R+48
- DeKalb County, MO R+57
- Ray County, MO R+53
- Livingston County, MO R+52
- Carroll County, MO R+61
- Grundy County, MO R+57
- Clay County, MO R+7
- Lafayette County, MO R+51
- Gentry County, MO R+63
Counties with Similar Populations
- Alger County, MI R+17
- Greene County, IA R+39
- Wilcox County, GA R+33
- Wilkinson County, GA R+22
- Monona County, IA R+46
- Quay County, NM R+32
- Livingston County, KY R+64
- Blaine County, OK R+60
- Hancock County, GA D+32
- Clearwater County, ID R+64
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.