Celina leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Celina typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Celina, ~24% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Celina compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Celina leans more Republican than 36 of 69 neighbors.
Celina runs about 24 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Why Celina leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Celina, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Celina votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 45%, modestly above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 89% of households in Celina are family households, in the top fraction of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Celina, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Celina looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in Celina own their home, about 18 points above the Texas average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Celina have completed high school, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Parvin, TX R+40
- Prosper, TX R+26
- Weston, TX R+45
- Mustang, TX R+27
- Marilee, TX R+58
- McKinney, TX R+6
- Kelly, TX R+45
- Lincoln Park, TX R+5
- Gunter, TX R+61
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wakulla Springs, FL D+49
- Dandridge, TN R+60
- Manassas Park, VA D+19
- Calera, AL R+19
- Zimmerman, MN R+40
- Myrtle Grove, FL R+18
- Aldine, TX D+6
- Badger, AK R+25
- Lowell, IN R+39
- Linden, MI R+23
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.