Central Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Central Phoenix

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Central Phoenix leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.

 

About 40% of adults in Central Phoenix typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Central Phoenix, ~28% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Central Phoenix compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Central Phoenix leans more Democratic than 4 of 5 neighbors.

Central Phoenix runs about 46 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Central Phoenix is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Central Phoenix. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+44) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+29), a spread of about 15 points.

Why Central Phoenix leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Central Phoenix, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Central Phoenix votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Central Phoenix runs about 46 points more Democratic. Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting, and non-Hispanic white share in Central Phoenix is about 32%, about 40 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in Central Phoenix have never been married, above 89% of neighborhoods.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Central Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Central Phoenix looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Central Phoenix is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 7 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 72% of households in Central Phoenix rent, compared to around 53% in nearby neighborhoods. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 30% of adults in Central Phoenix report food insecurity, above 83% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.