Changewater leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 93% of adults in Changewater typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Changewater, ~34% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~7% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Changewater compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Changewater leans more Republican than 124 of 164 neighbors.
Changewater runs about 31 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Changewater is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Changewater leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Changewater, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 83% of households in Changewater are family households, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Changewater runs against that pattern. Changewater runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Changewater, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Changewater looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Changewater is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 98% of households in Changewater own their home, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Port Colden, NJ R+23
- Glen Gardner, NJ R+15
- Washington, NJ R+14
- Port Murray, NJ R+22
- Oxford, NJ R+28
- High Bridge, NJ D+6
- Broadway, NJ R+35
- Asbury, NJ R+25
- Califon, NJ R+9
- Jutland, NJ R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Terry, TN R+66
- Fort Rock, OR R+67
- Ormsby, PA R+49
- Encinal, NM D+29
- Middle Water, TX R+86
- Holder, IL R+30
- Point Caswell, NC R+16
- Shore Oaks, NY R+33
- St. Mary, NE R+52
- Copley, WV R+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.