Chualar is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Chualar typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chualar, ~22% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chualar compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Chualar sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 9 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 25 leaning the other way.
Chualar runs about 19 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Chualar. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Chualar leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Chualar. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Chualar, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Chualar looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Chualar is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 23%, about 13 points above the California average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 64% of households in Chualar rent, compared to around 28% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 32% of adults in Chualar report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Gonzales, CA D+21
- Spreckels, CA Even
- Salinas, CA D+29
- East Garrison, CA R+2
- Soledad, CA D+22
- Carmel Valley Village, CA D+31
- Carmel Valley, CA D+30
- Tres Pinos, CA R+35
- Robles Del Rio, CA D+30
Cities with Similar Populations
- Harrisville, WV R+65
- Mona, UT R+76
- Southmont, PA R+13
- Stockton, UT R+69
- Huntington, MA R+13
- Huntington, AR R+70
- Milford, VA R+21
- Osburn, ID R+40
- Black Eagle, MT R+35
- Sandy Lake, PA R+51
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.