Church Hill leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Church Hill typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Church Hill, ~24% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Church Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Church Hill leans more Republican than 8 of 14 neighbors.
Church Hill runs about 23 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Why Church Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Church Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 80% of households in Church Hill are family households, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Church Hill runs against that pattern.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Church Hill, MT sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Church Hill looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Church Hill have completed high school, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Francis, MT R+48
- Manhattan, MT R+36
- Belgrade, MT R+21
- Four Corners, MT R+14
- Anceney, MT R+34
- Logan, MT R+35
- Bozeman, MT D+21
- Three Forks, MT R+46
- Trident, MT R+58
- Willow Creek, MT R+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Beaver City, NE R+73
- Lane, OK R+75
- Primm, NV R+11
- Flemington, WV R+59
- Mesa, CO R+54
- Beverly Shores, IN R+8
- March, MO R+68
- Smyrna, WA R+57
- Stonelick, OH R+55
- Elwood, TX R+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.