Manhattan leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 91% of adults in Manhattan typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Manhattan, ~29% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~9% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Manhattan compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Manhattan leans more Republican than 7 of 15 neighbors.
Manhattan runs about 16 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Manhattan. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+49) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 37 points.
Why Manhattan leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Manhattan, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Manhattan votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 29%, well above the Montana average of 13%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Manhattan, MT sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Manhattan looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. More than 99% of adults in Manhattan have completed high school, about 6 points above the Montana average of 94%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Francis, MT R+48
- Church Hill, MT R+43
- Logan, MT R+35
- Belgrade, MT R+21
- Anceney, MT R+34
- Four Corners, MT R+14
- Three Forks, MT R+46
- Trident, MT R+58
- Willow Creek, MT R+52
- Bozeman, MT D+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- Phoenix Lake, CA R+27
- Milan, IN R+61
- Sinking Spring, PA Even
- Clarkson, KY R+63
- Yellville, AR R+57
- Primos, PA D+21
- Joppa, MD R+23
- Bradley Beach, NJ D+16
- Mount Olive, MS R+15
- Lovelock, NV R+46
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.