Coalinga leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Coalinga typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Coalinga, ~20% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Coalinga compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Coalinga leans more Republican than 5 of 7 neighbors.
Coalinga runs about 34 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Coalinga is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Coalinga. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+38) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Coalinga leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Coalinga, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Coalinga votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 59%, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Coalinga sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 82% of cities). Coalinga runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Coalinga, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Coalinga looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Coalinga is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 49% of households in Coalinga rent, compared to around 67% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 29% of adults in Coalinga report food insecurity, above 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Turk, CA R+36
- Huron, CA D+16
- Avenal, CA D+4
- Parkfield, CA R+40
- Five Points, CA R+4
- Kettleman City, CA R+4
- Cantua Creek, CA Even
- Three Rocks, CA R+4
- Lemoore Naval Air Station, CA R+37
- Lemoore Station, CA R+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lake Station, IN R+12
- Ipswich, MA D+26
- Lakeland, TN R+30
- Kingston, PA D+3
- Grantsville, UT R+58
- Cortez, CO R+30
- Mulberry, FL R+33
- Foristell, MO R+41
- Superior, CO D+51
- Robinson, TX R+51
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.