Crab Orchard Estates leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Crab Orchard Estates typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Crab Orchard Estates, ~31% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Crab Orchard Estates compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Crab Orchard Estates leans more Republican than 5 of 88 neighbors.
Crab Orchard Estates runs about 32 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Crab Orchard Estates is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Crab Orchard Estates. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+35), a spread of about 48 points.
Why Crab Orchard Estates leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Crab Orchard Estates, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Crab Orchard Estates votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 29%, about 7 points below the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Crab Orchard Estates runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Crab Orchard Estates, IL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Crab Orchard Estates looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Crab Orchard Estates have completed high school, about 5 points above the Illinois average of 92%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cambria, IL R+34
- Carterville, IL R+25
- Crainville, IL R+19
- Reeds Station, IL R+13
- Colp, IL R+43
- Carbondale, IL D+36
- Energy, IL R+34
- Hurst, IL R+50
- Herrin, IL R+35
- DeSoto, IL R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Middle Granville, NY R+42
- Eureka, UT R+76
- Two Rivers, AK R+24
- Hardwick, CA R+53
- Alverno, MI R+29
- Star Lake, NY R+25
- Charter Oak, IA R+57
- Kirvin, TX R+70
- Daleville, MS R+11
- Yorkville, WI R+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.