Dunkirk, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Dunkirk

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Dunkirk is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.

 

About 56% of adults in Dunkirk typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dunkirk, ~29% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Dunkirk compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Dunkirk sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 62 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 4 leaning the other way.

Dunkirk runs about 11 points more Republican than New York as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Dunkirk. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+9) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+18), a spread of about 27 points.

Why Dunkirk leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Dunkirk. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Dunkirk, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Dunkirk looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 37% of households in Dunkirk rent, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Dunkirk sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Dunkirk report food insecurity, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.