East Side Capistrano leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 52% of adults in East Side Capistrano typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in East Side Capistrano, ~30% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How East Side Capistrano compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, East Side Capistrano leans more Democratic than 3 of 7 neighbors.
East Side Capistrano runs about 5 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within East Side Capistrano. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+29) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+7), a spread of about 36 points.
Why East Side Capistrano leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in East Side Capistrano. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with low high-school-completion share tend to turn out at a lower rate; East Side Capistrano, Oceanside, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in East Side Capistrano looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 9% of homes in East Side Capistrano have more than one occupant per room, above 89% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Townsite, Oceanside, CA D+31
- South Oceanside, Oceanside, CA D+19
- Fire Mountain, Oceanside, CA D+19
- San Luis Rey, Oceanside, CA D+11
- Ivey Ranch-Rancho del Oro, Oceanside, CA D+13
- Downtown Carlsbad, Carlsbad, CA D+24
- North Valley San Diego, Oceanside, CA D+10
- Lake, Oceanside, CA D+3
- Guajome, Oceanside, CA Even
- Peacock, Oceanside, CA D+10
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Boynton, Detroit, MI D+85
- Lincoln Heights, Los Angeles, CA D+53
- Saint Johns, Austin, TX D+54
- Rainbow Hills, San Antonio, TX D+23
- Bala Cynwyd, Bala-Cynwyd, PA D+48
- The Bush, Chicago, IL D+68
- Hyde Park, Austin, TX D+71
- Smith Hill, Providence, RI D+47
- Summit Hill, St. Paul, MN D+71
- West Englewood, Teaneck, NJ D+56
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.