Estelville leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 86% of adults in Estelville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Estelville, ~25% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Estelville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Estelville leans more Republican than 101 of 110 neighbors.
Estelville runs about 48 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Estelville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Estelville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Estelville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Estelville votes against the grain of New Jersey. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Estelville runs about 48 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 87% of residents in Estelville drive to work alone, above 87% of cities. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 84% of households in Estelville are family households, above 95% of cities.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Estelville, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Estelville looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 98% of households in Estelville own their home, about 24 points above the New Jersey average of 74%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Estelville have completed high school, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Estell Manor, NJ R+41
- Corbin City, NJ R+36
- Dorothy, NJ R+34
- Steelmantown, NJ R+33
- Hesstown, NJ R+45
- Woodbine, NJ R+21
- Harding Lakes, NJ R+7
- Clarktown, NJ R+16
- Milmay, NJ R+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mermet, IL R+64
- St. Andrews, WA R+57
- Bairoil, WY R+64
- Decker, MT Even
- Pinckneyville, MS D+45
- Reinersville, OH R+62
- Rosetta, MS R+42
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.