Frederick County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Frederick County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Frederick County, ~31% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Frederick County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Frederick County leans more Republican than 11 of 20 neighbors.
Frederick County runs about 31 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Frederick County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Frederick County. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+13), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Frederick County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Frederick County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Frederick County votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Frederick County runs about 31 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 72% of households in Frederick County are family households, above 86% of counties.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Frederick County, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Frederick County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Frederick County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Winchester City, VA D+12
- Clarke County, VA R+18
- Warren County, VA R+32
- Jefferson County, WV R+22
- Berkeley County, WV R+33
- Hampshire County, WV R+62
- Shenandoah County, VA R+44
- Morgan County, WV R+56
- Rappahannock County, VA R+17
- Loudoun County, VA D+18
Counties with Similar Populations
- Ozaukee County, WI R+7
- Victoria County, TX R+28
- Wayne County, NY R+23
- Mendocino County, CA D+23
- Liberty County, TX R+50
- Northumberland County, PA R+39
- Grafton County, NH D+18
- St. Clair County, AL R+65
- Rockingham County, NC R+31
- Nassau County, FL R+47
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.