Gray Haven leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Gray Haven typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Gray Haven, ~26% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Gray Haven compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Gray Haven is the most Republican-leaning.
Gray Haven runs about 46 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Gray Haven is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Gray Haven. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+26) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Gray Haven leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Gray Haven, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Gray Haven votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Gray Haven runs about 46 points more Republican. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Gray Haven fits that profile on both counts.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Gray Haven, Dundalk, MD sits below the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Gray Haven looks the way it does
Turnout in Gray Haven sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Ellaville, Hyattsville, MD D+73
- Willert Park, Buffalo, NY D+83
- Upper Laurel, Oakland, CA D+77
- Marston, Littleton, CO D+22
- South Louisville, Louisville, KY D+40
- Starmount, Charlotte, NC D+32
- Singing Arrow, Albuquerque, NM D+20
- Winston Park, Palatine, IL D+18
- Columbus Park, Milwaukee, WI D+74
- University Gardens, Great Neck, NY D+10
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.