Harrisonburg City leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Harrisonburg City typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Harrisonburg City, ~31% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Harrisonburg City compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Harrisonburg City leans more Democratic than 16 of 18 neighbors.
Harrisonburg City runs about 12 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Harrisonburg City. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+29) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+8), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Harrisonburg City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Harrisonburg City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 92% of residents in Harrisonburg City live in densely developed areas, about 56 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Harrisonburg City sits in the top quarter (about 43%, above 94% of counties). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 57% of adults in Harrisonburg City have never been married, in the top fraction of counties.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Harrisonburg City, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Harrisonburg City looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 58% of households in Harrisonburg City rent, about 33 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Harrisonburg City sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Rockingham County, VA R+40
- Staunton City, VA Even
- Page County, VA R+53
- Augusta County, VA R+45
- Waynesboro City, VA R+9
- Greene County, VA R+26
- Pendleton County, WV R+61
- Albemarle County, VA D+24
- Madison County, VA R+34
- Charlottesville City, VA D+60
Counties with Similar Populations
- Waupaca County, WI R+34
- Oktibbeha County, MS D+3
- Ogle County, IL R+28
- St. Martin Parish, LA R+35
- Darke County, OH R+61
- Grant County, WI R+23
- Nye County, NV R+41
- Cass County, MI R+29
- Hoke County, NC D+7
- Franklin County, KY R+19
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.