Rockingham County leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Rockingham County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rockingham County, ~24% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rockingham County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Rockingham County leans more Republican than 13 of 20 neighbors.
Rockingham County runs about 46 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Rockingham County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Rockingham County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+15), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Rockingham County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rockingham County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rockingham County votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Rockingham County runs about 46 points more Republican.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Rockingham County, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Rockingham County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Rockingham County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Harrisonburg City, VA D+18
- Page County, VA R+53
- Staunton City, VA Even
- Augusta County, VA R+45
- Waynesboro City, VA R+9
- Greene County, VA R+26
- Pendleton County, WV R+61
- Albemarle County, VA D+24
- Madison County, VA R+34
- Shenandoah County, VA R+44
Counties with Similar Populations
- Howard County, IN R+30
- Crawford County, PA R+39
- Barrow County, GA R+36
- Midland County, MI R+15
- Chemung County, NY R+14
- Lee County, MS R+26
- Orangeburg County, SC D+28
- Indiana County, PA R+34
- Wood County, WV R+41
- Cascade County, MT R+25
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.