Hartley leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Hartley typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hartley, ~33% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hartley compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Hartley leans more Democratic than 15 of 22 neighbors.
Hartley runs about 56 points more Democratic than Nebraska as a whole. Nebraska leans Republican overall, while Hartley is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Hartley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hartley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hartley votes against the grain of Nebraska. Nebraska leans Republican overall, while Hartley runs about 56 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 53% of adults in Hartley have never been married, above 86% of neighborhoods.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Hartley, Lincoln, NE sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Hartley looks the way it does
High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, mostly because the housing stress common in those areas makes voting harder. Hartley sits in the top 15% nationally on a violent-crime measure. See CrimeGrade for more details. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Woods Park, Lincoln, NE D+37
- East Campus, Lincoln, NE D+45
- Malone, Lincoln, NE D+38
- Clinton, Lincoln, NE D+32
- 40th and A, Lincoln, NE D+28
- Downtown Lincoln, Lincoln, NE D+42
- Near South, Lincoln, NE D+44
- University Place, Lincoln, NE D+13
- Everett, Lincoln, NE D+40
- Bethany, Lincoln, NE D+10
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Castlewood Park, Lexington, KY D+16
- Avalon Park Village, Alafaya, FL Even
- Ventura, Orlando, FL D+11
- Miller Creek, Missoula, MT D+3
- Brookside Glen, Chicago, IL D+47
- Timber Ridge, San Antonio, TX D+15
- East Bluff, Peoria, IL D+57
- Slater Park, Charlotte, NC D+76
- East Somerville, Somerville, MA D+59
- Bayou Oaks, Sarasota, FL D+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Nebraska Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.