Horse Pasture leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Horse Pasture typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Horse Pasture, ~27% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Horse Pasture compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Horse Pasture leans more Republican than 7 of 61 neighbors.
Horse Pasture runs about 32 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Horse Pasture is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Horse Pasture leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Horse Pasture, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 90% of residents in Horse Pasture drive to work alone, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Horse Pasture runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Horse Pasture, VA sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Horse Pasture looks the way it does
Turnout in Horse Pasture sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Chestnut Knob, VA R+21
- Koehler, VA D+22
- Preston, VA R+44
- Spencer, VA R+47
- Ridgeway, VA R+41
- Fieldale, VA R+33
- Martinsville, VA D+7
- Collinsville, VA R+30
- Stella, VA R+53
- Stanleytown, VA R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- St. Marys Point, MN D+7
- North Loup, NE R+72
- Godfrey, GA R+48
- Van Wert, IA R+58
- Trego, MT R+57
- Gideon, OK R+48
- Amberson, PA R+72
- Marilee, TX R+58
- Killarney, GA R+57
- Centerville, MO R+69
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.