Lake Arthur is a Republican stronghold. About 17% of voters here vote Democratic and 83% Republican.
About 40% of adults in Lake Arthur typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Arthur, ~7% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Arthur compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Arthur leans more Republican than 4 of 8 neighbors.
Lake Arthur runs about 72 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Lake Arthur is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Arthur. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+76) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+59), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Lake Arthur leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Arthur, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake Arthur votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Lake Arthur runs about 72 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Lake Arthur sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 3%, below 92% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Lake Arthur are family households, above 84% of cities.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Lake Arthur, NM does.
Why turnout in Lake Arthur looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lake Arthur is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Lake Arthur report food insecurity, above 85% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Lake Arthur have completed high school, below 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Riverside, NM R+67
- Artesia, NM R+56
- Hagerman, NM R+56
- Atoka, NM R+68
- Greenfield, NM R+54
- Hope, NM R+74
- Dexter, NM R+48
- Lakewood, NM R+72
- Seven Rivers, NM R+75
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ocobla, MS R+46
- Burfordville, MO R+68
- Volney, MI R+43
- Mount Olive, WV R+53
- Emerson, AR R+50
- Hays, MT D+50
- Hiram Rapids, OH R+29
- McCullom Lake, IL R+12
- Millersburg, KY R+56
- Birdseye, IN R+56
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.