Lake McMurray is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Lake McMurray typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake McMurray, ~37% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake McMurray compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake McMurray leans more Republican than 18 of 55 neighbors.
Lake McMurray runs about 23 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Lake McMurray is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Lake McMurray leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake McMurray, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake McMurray votes against the grain of Washington. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Lake McMurray runs about 23 points more Republican.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Lake McMurray, WA does.
Why turnout in Lake McMurray looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lake McMurray is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Lake McMurray have completed high school, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Conway, WA R+5
- East Stanwood, WA R+23
- Bryant, WA R+24
- Norman, WA R+20
- Sunday Lake, WA R+20
- Northwest Stanwood, WA R+12
- Mount Vernon, WA D+10
- Big Lake, WA D+3
- Stanwood, WA R+16
- Clear Lake, WA R+17
Cities with Similar Populations
- Needmore, WV R+64
- Luray, KS R+67
- Bobtown, IN R+65
- Sutliff, IA R+9
- West Jersey, IL R+54
- Stockdale, IN R+64
- Wentworth, WI R+10
- West Perry, NY R+39
- Teaberry, WV R+54
- Riparius, NY R+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.