Panoche leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 35% of adults in Panoche typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Panoche, ~13% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~65% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Panoche compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Panoche leans more Republican than 6 of 9 neighbors.
Panoche runs about 46 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Panoche is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Panoche. The west side is the most split-leaning (R+49) and the east side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Panoche leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Panoche, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Panoche votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Panoche runs about 46 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Panoche sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 2%, below 97% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Panoche, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Panoche looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Panoche is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 20%, about 10 points above the California average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 62% of households in Panoche rent, about 37 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 30% of adults in Panoche report food insecurity, above 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oro Loma, CA R+24
- Paicines, CA R+48
- Three Rocks, CA R+4
- Mendota, CA D+12
- Firebaugh, CA D+8
- South Dos Palos, CA R+14
- Lonoak, CA R+37
- Dos Palos, CA R+11
- Pinnacles, CA R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Light, AR R+70
- Yorktown, AR R+57
- Fairport, NC R+38
- Ballengee, WV R+58
- Huntingdale, MO R+63
- Silver City, MI R+23
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.