Mariner leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Mariner typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mariner, ~23% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mariner compares
Mariner runs about 18 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Mariner. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+41) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+27), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Mariner leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mariner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 79% of households in Mariner are family households, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Mariner, Cape Coral, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mariner looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Mariner is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Pelican, Cape Coral, FL R+31
- Winkler Safe Neighborhood, Fort Myers, FL D+18
- Tice, Fort Myers, FL D+10
- Fort Myers Villas, Villas, FL R+17
- Arborwood, Fort Myers, FL R+23
- Sunshine, Lehigh Acres, FL D+6
- Harris, Lehigh Acres, FL R+8
- Richmond, Lehigh Acres, FL R+11
- Pelican Marsh, Naples, FL R+21
- Pelican Bay, Naples, FL R+23
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Santa Anita, Santa Ana, CA D+22
- Sunnyside, Tucson, AZ D+40
- University Heights, San Diego, CA D+63
- Pittman, Henderson, NV D+5
- Windy Hill, Jacksonville, FL D+2
- North Hill, Akron, OH D+27
- Locust Manor, Queens, NY D+75
- Puritas Longmead, Cleveland, OH D+28
- Georgetown, Washington, DC D+69
- Haight-Ashbury, San Francisco, CA D+82
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.