Clay County is a Republican stronghold. About 17% of voters here vote Democratic and 83% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Clay County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~13% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County leans more Republican than 11 of 20 neighbors.
Clay County runs about 37 points more Republican than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+75) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+64), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Clay County, about 94% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 12% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 10 points below the Tennessee average of 22%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Clay County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 10%, below 82% of counties).
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Clay County, TN sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Turnout in Clay County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Monroe County, KY R+69
- Jackson County, TN R+65
- Cumberland County, KY R+67
- Overton County, TN R+67
- Pickett County, TN R+70
- Macon County, TN R+68
- Clinton County, KY R+72
- Putnam County, TN R+43
- Metcalfe County, KY R+65
- Smith County, TN R+64
Counties with Similar Populations
- Valley County, MT R+48
- Monroe County, IA R+43
- Dade County, MO R+67
- Grant County, SD R+52
- Boise County, ID R+50
- Cleveland County, AR R+69
- Red River Parish, LA R+19
- Nicholas County, KY R+60
- McCulloch County, TX R+56
- Decatur County, IA R+44
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.