Middlebury leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Middlebury typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middlebury, ~31% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middlebury compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Middlebury leans more Democratic than 10 of 19 neighbors.
Middlebury runs about 53 points more Democratic than Ohio as a whole. Ohio leans Republican overall, while Middlebury is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Middlebury. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+55) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+28), a spread of about 27 points.
Why Middlebury leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middlebury, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Middlebury votes against the grain of Ohio. Ohio leans Republican overall, while Middlebury runs about 53 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 55% of adults in Middlebury have never been married, above 88% of neighborhoods.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Middlebury, Akron, OH sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Middlebury looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 71% of households in Middlebury rent, about 46 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 36% of adults in Middlebury report food insecurity, above 90% of neighborhoods. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Middlebury sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- University of Ohio Akron, Akron, OH D+49
- East Akron, Akron, OH D+50
- Downtown Akron, Akron, OH D+62
- Goodyear Heights, Akron, OH D+22
- Elizabeth Park Valley, Akron, OH D+46
- South Akron, Akron, OH D+39
- North Hill, Akron, OH D+27
- Chapel Hill, Akron, OH D+20
- Firestone Park, Akron, OH D+24
- Summit Lake, Akron, OH D+50
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Belle Haven, Belle View, VA D+45
- Fairmont Park, Norfolk, VA D+63
- McKinley Avenue Corridor, Columbus, OH D+34
- Vernon Hill, Worcester, MA D+30
- Terra del Sol, Tucson, AZ D+11
- Crestwood, Tuckahoe, NY D+5
- Cedar Knolls, Bronxville, NY D+26
- Lace, Darien, IL D+6
- Hedgeville, Wilmington, DE D+55
- Dam East-West, Aurora, CO D+36
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Ohio Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.