Missouri leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Missouri typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Missouri, ~31% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Missouri compares
Among states within 500 miles, Missouri leans more Republican than 4 of 12 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Missouri. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+9) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+53), a spread of about 62 points.
Why Missouri leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Missouri. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Missouri sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Missouri looks the way it does
Turnout in Missouri sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
States with Similar Populations
- Maryland D+33
- Wisconsin Even
- Colorado D+12
- Minnesota D+5
- Indiana R+15
- Tennessee R+23
- Massachusetts D+26
- Arizona Even
- South Carolina R+12
- Alabama R+23
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.