Arkansas leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Arkansas typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arkansas, ~22% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arkansas compares
Among states within 500 miles, Arkansas leans more Republican than 10 of 12 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Arkansas. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+57) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+7), a spread of about 50 points.
Why Arkansas leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per state to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arkansas, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican, and Arkansas sits in the bottom quarter on developed land relative to similar places. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Arkansas sits in the bottom quarter (about 26%, below 94% of states).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Arkansas sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Arkansas looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arkansas is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Arkansas report food insecurity, above 90% of states. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 89% of adults in Arkansas have completed high school, below 84% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
States with Similar Populations
- Mississippi R+13
- Kansas R+14
- Nevada D+5
- Iowa R+12
- Utah R+19
- New Mexico D+4
- Oklahoma R+26
- Nebraska R+15
- Idaho R+34
- West Virginia R+41
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.