Modesto is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Modesto typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Modesto, ~14% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Modesto compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Modesto leans more Republican than 50 of 57 neighbors.
Modesto runs about 70 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Modesto is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Modesto leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Modesto, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Modesto votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Modesto runs about 70 points more Republican. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Modesto fits that profile on both counts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Modesto are family households, above 89% of cities.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Modesto, IL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Modesto looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in Modesto own their home, about 12 points above the Illinois average of 80%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Palmyra, IL R+57
- Scottville, IL R+56
- Waverly, IL R+48
- Girard, IL R+42
- Hettick, IL R+60
- McVey, IL R+52
- Franklin, IL R+55
- Nilwood, IL R+53
- Virden, IL R+39
- Thayer, IL R+45
Cities with Similar Populations
- Raleigh, IL R+63
- Forestburgh, NY R+3
- Glover, OK R+72
- Crescent City, IL R+53
- Hallwood, GA R+52
- Lorane, IN R+56
- Mount Garland, VA R+32
- Lake Tanglewood, TX R+72
- Sprague, WA R+62
- Ipava, IL R+50
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.