Moline leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Moline typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Moline, ~39% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Moline compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Moline leans more Democratic than 76 of 78 neighbors.
Moline runs about 5 points more Democratic than Illinois as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Moline. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+28) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Moline leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Moline, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 91% of residents in Moline live in densely developed areas, about 55 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 33% of adults in Moline have never been married, above 84% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Moline, IL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Moline looks the way it does
Turnout in Moline sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- East Moline, IL D+17
- Rock Island, IL D+29
- Riverdale, IA R+6
- Coal Valley, IL R+18
- Silvis, IL D+9
- Bettendorf, IA D+5
- Carbon Cliff, IL Even
- Milan, IL R+9
- Davenport, IA D+14
- Hampton, IL Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Morrisville, NC D+37
- Bullhead City, AZ R+30
- Leominster, MA D+9
- Sun Prairie, WI D+37
- Burlington, VT D+65
- Gonzales, LA R+24
- San Bruno, CA D+43
- Meadow Woods, FL D+12
- West Bend, WI R+23
- Chatsworth, CA D+16
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.