Coal Valley leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 92% of adults in Coal Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Coal Valley, ~38% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Coal Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Coal Valley leans more Republican than 13 of 75 neighbors.
Coal Valley runs about 29 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Coal Valley is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Coal Valley. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+31) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Coal Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Coal Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Coal Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 28%, about 9 points below the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Coal Valley runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Coal Valley, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Coal Valley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Coal Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 93% of households in Coal Valley own their home, compared to around 76% in nearby cities. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Coal Valley have completed high school, above 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sunny Hill, IL R+33
- Sunny Hill Estates, IL R+30
- Moline, IL D+16
- Silvis, IL D+9
- East Moline, IL D+17
- Carbon Cliff, IL Even
- Green Rock, IL R+21
- Milan, IL R+9
- Oak Grove, IL R+20
- Rock Island, IL D+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- Port St. Joe, FL R+41
- Port Labelle, FL R+36
- Greenback, TN R+69
- Dulles Town Center, VA D+26
- Beaver Dam, KY R+56
- Coldspring, TX R+57
- Richfield, OH R+14
- Hanover, IN R+40
- Staunton, IL R+35
- North Street, MI R+38
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.