Monticello leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 88% of adults in Monticello typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Monticello, ~32% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Monticello compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Monticello leans more Republican than 26 of 57 neighbors.
Monticello runs about 33 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Monticello is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Monticello. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+42) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+18), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Monticello leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Monticello, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Monticello votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 45%, well above the Minnesota average of 23%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Monticello runs against the grain of Minnesota, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Monticello, MN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Monticello looks the way it does
Turnout in Monticello sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Big Lake, MN R+30
- Albertville, MN R+16
- Buffalo, MN R+26
- St. Michael, MN R+19
- Silver Creek, MN R+40
- Becker, MN R+42
- Maple Lake, MN R+37
- Otsego, MN R+24
- Hanover, MN R+25
- Orrock, MN R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pampa, TX R+57
- Maryland City, MD D+55
- La Crescenta-Montrose, CA D+16
- Ludlow, MA R+10
- Lincoln, RI D+5
- Bon Air, VA D+17
- Roscoe, IL R+17
- Godfrey, IL R+18
- Ontario, OR R+34
- Sayreville, NJ D+3
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.