Moon Lake Estates leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Moon Lake Estates typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Moon Lake Estates, ~15% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Moon Lake Estates compares
Moon Lake Estates runs about 32 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Moon Lake Estates. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+53) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+40), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Moon Lake Estates leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Moon Lake Estates, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in Moon Lake Estates hold a bachelor's degree, about 21 points below the Florida average of 31%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Moon Lake Estates sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 39%, below 91% of neighborhoods).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Moon Lake Estates, Moon Lake, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Moon Lake Estates looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Moon Lake Estates is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 14 points below the Florida average of 56%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in Moon Lake Estates have completed high school, below 84% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Embassy Hills, Jasmine Estates, FL R+21
- Seven Oaks, Wesley Chapel, FL R+9
- Carrollwood, Tampa, FL R+5
- West Meadows, Tampa, FL D+15
- Cross Fletcher, University, FL D+35
- Tampa Palms, Tampa, FL D+16
- Forest Hills, Tampa, FL R+8
- Meadow Point, Wesley Chapel, FL R+5
- Hunters Green, Tampa, FL D+9
- North Tampa, Tampa, FL D+38
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- South Main Street Historic District, Middletown, OH D+7
- Willow Park, Fargo, ND D+25
- River Oaks-Brookhollow, Abilene, TX R+39
- West Oakland, Pittsburgh, PA D+69
- South Shore Harbour and Marina, League City, TX R+20
- Acorn, Oakland, CA D+69
- Kings Mill, Broomfield, CO D+24
- Lowell, Colorado Springs, CO D+33
- Iveywood, Oakland, CA D+61
- Longwood, Cypress, TX R+32
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.