Carrollwood is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Carrollwood typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carrollwood, ~33% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carrollwood compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Carrollwood leans more Republican than 6 of 8 neighbors.
Carrollwood runs about 8 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Carrollwood. The south side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Carrollwood leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Carrollwood. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Carrollwood, Tampa, FL sits below the national average on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Carrollwood looks the way it does
Turnout in Carrollwood sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Forest Hills, Tampa, FL R+8
- Lowry Park Central, Tampa, FL D+3
- North Tampa, Tampa, FL D+38
- Riverbend, Tampa, FL D+3
- Plaza Terrace, Tampa, FL D+7
- Cross Fletcher, University, FL D+35
- Town 'N Country Park, Town 'n' Country, FL R+9
- Seminole Heights, Tampa, FL D+31
- Sulphur Springs, Tampa, FL D+43
- University Square, Tampa, FL D+36
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Payne Phallen, St. Paul, MN D+40
- Ettingville, Staten Island, NY R+54
- Rhodes Ranch, Spring Valley, NV D+12
- Northwest, Reno, NV Even
- North Lawndale, Chicago, IL D+78
- Torresdale, Philadelphia, PA R+10
- Berryessa, San Jose, CA D+22
- Scripps Ranch, San Diego, CA D+20
- West End, Tacoma, WA D+33
- Aliamanu, Honolulu, HI D+13
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.