North Tampa, Tampa, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in North Tampa

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

North Tampa leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.

 

About 33% of adults in North Tampa typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in North Tampa, ~22% vote Democratic, ~10% Republican, and ~68% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How North Tampa compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, North Tampa leans more Democratic than 12 of 17 neighbors.

North Tampa runs about 51 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while North Tampa is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within North Tampa. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+44) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+23), a spread of about 21 points.

Why North Tampa leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for North Tampa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

North Tampa votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while North Tampa runs about 51 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 52% of adults in North Tampa have never been married, above 85% of neighborhoods.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; North Tampa, Tampa, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in North Tampa looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. North Tampa is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 35%, about 22 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 82% of households in North Tampa rent, compared to around 50% in nearby neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 70% of adults in North Tampa have completed high school, below 95% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.