New River leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 83% of adults in New River typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New River, ~23% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New River compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New River leans more Republican than 13 of 15 neighbors.
New River runs about 39 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New River. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+33), a spread of about 23 points.
Why New River leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New River, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
New River votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 40%, above 84% of cities). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; New River, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in New River looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in New River own their home, about 20 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Anthem, AZ R+24
- Cave Creek, AZ R+22
- Carefree, AZ R+26
- Black Canyon City, AZ R+46
- Peoria, AZ R+16
- Sun City, AZ R+16
- Glendale, AZ D+3
- Sun City West, AZ R+16
- Scottsdale, AZ R+3
- El Mirage, AZ D+3
Cities with Similar Populations
- Buffalo, MN R+26
- Hercules, CA D+46
- East Peoria, IL R+23
- Temperance, MI R+27
- Five Corners, WA Even
- Olivehurst, CA R+11
- Abbeville, LA R+29
- East Hemet, CA R+12
- Alpine, CA R+30
- South St. Paul, MN D+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.