El Mirage is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 51% of adults in El Mirage typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in El Mirage, ~26% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How El Mirage compares
Among cities within 25 miles, El Mirage sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 21 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 6 leaning the other way.
El Mirage runs about 8 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within El Mirage. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 24 points.
Why El Mirage leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in El Mirage. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; El Mirage, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in El Mirage looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. El Mirage is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 31% of households in El Mirage rent, above 85% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 24% of adults in El Mirage report food insecurity, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Youngtown, AZ R+11
- Sun City, AZ R+16
- Surprise, AZ R+20
- Sun City West, AZ R+16
- Luke Afb, AZ R+3
- Peoria, AZ R+16
- Litchfield Park, AZ R+9
- Waddell, AZ R+35
- Glendale, AZ D+3
- Avondale, AZ D+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Burien, WA D+38
- West Hills, CA D+16
- University Place, WA D+29
- Inver Grove Heights, MN D+10
- Randolph, MA D+49
- Richmond West, FL R+25
- Pleasant Hill, CA D+41
- Mount Airy, NC R+49
- Glendale Heights, IL D+14
- Daphne, AL R+40
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.